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Toronto Home Prices, this Roller Coaster just hit “the Drop!”

Updated: Nov 7, 2022

What makes for a great roller coaster? Is it the nervous tension and anticipation of the upcoming ride as a coaster car climbs the lift hill? The exhilaration of speed as a rider enters the drop? Or the experience of twisting through loops, turns, and bunny hops? For Toronto homeowners, buyers and sellers, 2022 has been one wild ride.

According to Konfidis’ analysis of detailed MLS transaction-level data calculating average home sold price at the time of sale, at the beginning of the year, the average home sold price rose as high as 21% in Toronto as buyers aggressively purchased properties engaging in multiple offers and taking advantage of low mortgage rates. Subsequently, the Toronto Housing market has seen significant declines in average sold prices as much as 27% as of July 14th, erasing average home sold prices gains for the year.

Konfidis analysis of average home sold price at the time of sale has been modelled against TRREB Market Watch Archive average home sold price and benchmark sold price for the City of Toronto for reasonableness (see Chart 1 below). Konfidis analysis is calculated daily up to July 14th, 2022. TREBB Market Watch Archive analytics are calculated monthly.

Source: from actual MLS Listings and transactions. For detached homes only, on a 15-day trailing basis. MLS Board Average sourced from TRREB Market Watch Archive average home sold price for detached homes only. MLS Board Benchmark sourced from TRREB Market Watch Archive calculated Benchmark sold price for detached homes only.

The ”Drop” in Toronto average home sold prices is clear to see and average sold prices have been in sharp decline for many months. When combined with declining average sale price premiums to list prices (as reported here), and increasing number of cancellations (as reported here), we see a favourable trend creating opportunities for savvy home buyers.

Konfidis is devoted to surfacing data-bolstered market trends for real estate investors. As the market shifts to a “buyer’s market” we continue to analyze market movements in real-time and share our insights.

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